又中又英｜October surprise

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are wondering and waiting to see if there will be an October surprise before the US presidential election. An October surprise could move the needle for or against the two candidates depending on what the October surprise is. Most people outside the US may not know what an October surprise is. US presidential elections are held every four years in early November. This year’s election is on November 5. An October surprise is a last-minute surprise in October, just before the November election, that moves the needle for or against a candidate.

If something moves the needle, it means it causes a big change in a situation, such as an election. There have been several October surprises in recent elections, but the biggest was during the 2016 election race between Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. On October 7, 2016, a 2005 Trump recording was leaked to the Washington Post. Trump was heard saying that, as a star, he could sexually touch the private parts of women without getting into trouble. Trump apologized when he realized it was a huge October surprise that could hurt his election.

Several weeks later, on October 28, the FBI Director at the time, James Comey, announced a new investigation into the use of outside servers by Clinton and the husband of her top aide for possible classified emails. Clinton’s October surprise hurt her more than Trump’s October surprise. She lost the election. Will there be another October surprise? There have been so many surprises already since Harris took over as the Democratic Party’s candidate from Joe Biden that only a huge one will move the needle.

副总统贺锦丽和前总统唐纳德‧特朗普都在思忖和等着看，美国总统大选前会否有一个“10月惊奇”（October surprise）？10月惊奇（October surprise）可以大大影响（move the needle）选情，是有利或不利于两个候选人，则视乎是什么10月惊奇（October surprise）。美国以外的大多数人，大概都不知道10月惊奇（October surprise）是什么。美国总统选举每4年的11月初举办一次。这一年的选举是在11月5日。An October surprise就是刚好在11月大选之前，10月的最后一刻才出现，足以撼动（moves the needle）一个候选人选情的事件。

若某事情 moves the needle，意即它会为一个形势，例如选举，带来巨大的改变。在最近那几次选举之中，也出现过几个10月惊奇（October surprises），但最震撼的一次要算2016年特朗普与前国务卿希拉莉‧克林顿的选战。2016年10月7日，特朗普一个2005年的录音泄露给《华盛顿邮报》。录音中听到特朗普说道，做明星的时候，他可以性触摸女人的私处，而不会有任何麻烦上身。特朗普意识到这是一个极大的10月惊奇（October surprise），足以损害他的选情，他便道歉了。

几个星期后，10月28日当天，当时的联邦调查局长詹姆士‧柯米宣布，要就希拉莉以及其心腹助手的丈夫，使用私人服务器处理有可能是机密电邮的案件重新展开调查。比起特朗普的10月惊奇（October surprise），希拉莉的10月惊奇（October surprise）更加伤害她。她最终落败。这一次又会不会有另一个10月惊奇（October surprise）？自从贺锦丽取代祖‧拜登成为民主党的候选人以来，已经有许多惊奇了，只有一个大的震撼弹才足以撼动（move the needle）选情。

mickchug@gmail.com
Michael Chugani褚简宁
中译：七刻