【Opinion】Trillion Dollar Baby: the U.S.–China “Trillion-Dollar Deal” as a defining moment for Canada and Taiwan?

Opinion by Paul Rivett, STMG (Canada) Chair

There have been several recent reports that Chinese Premier Yi has floated a $1 trillion investment pledge to the United States, in exchange for easing tariffs and restrictions. At first blush, it looks like a breakthrough: capital flows into U.S. projects, jobs created, and trade tensions soothed.

But the reality may be deeper and more dangerous. This may not be a simple trade deal — it may be leverage. By tying itself more tightly to Chinese capital, Washington gains a short-term capitalist victory, but risks losing the freedom to act decisively when Beijing presses its core ambition: the subjugation of Taiwan.

A Bargain With Hidden Costs

If the United States becomes financially reliant on Chinese investment, the political price of resisting Beijing will rise sharply. Sanctions, supply-chain decoupling, or military action in defense of Taiwan would suddenly threaten not only U.S. strategic goals but trillions in economic entanglement.

In Beijing, that shift would be read as weakness. A trillion-dollar pact would signal that the U.S. can be bought at a price and that America’s red lines are malleable; And once deterrence looks uncertain, China has every incentive to test it.

Taiwan’s Centrality

Taiwan is not just another contested territory. It produces the majority of the world’s advanced semiconductors, anchors U.S. alliances in Asia, and represents a democratic counter-model to China’s authoritarian governance.

Lose Taiwan, and the balance of power tilts not only in global computing power but in the political Indo-Pacific balance, decisively toward Beijing. A United States bound by Chinese investment may find itself too compromised to respond, or at least delayed by the internal bias.

Prepping for the Wrong Disaster

Recent reports, most recently in the Wall Street Journal, have documented the fact that ordinary Taiwanese citizens are drawing their own conclusions. In Taiwan, “preppers” have stockpiled rice, canned food, water, and medicine, planning to endure two or three months of disruption. That may help in a short siege. However, if China blockades the island or worse, invades, the real crisis won’t be about calories. It will be about mobility. Borders closed, airports shut, banks frozen. In that moment, a pantry full of beans will for short-term survival will be of little value.

The only true insurance is a second passport — a legal right to cross borders, resettle, and rebuild.

Why Canada Should Step Up

Here is where Canadian policy comes into play. Canada, with its history of humanitarian leadership, democratic values, and strong Chinese-speaking diaspora, is uniquely positioned to help. Ottawa should create an expedited pathway for Taiwanese citizens to obtain second citizenship or permanent residency.

There are several reasons:

1. Moral clarity
   Canada has long championed the rights of threatened peoples with significant support for mass immigrations — from Vietnamese boat people, to Hong Kongers fleeing the fall of promised democracy and freedoms, to more recently, Syrian and Palestinian refugees. Offering Taiwanese a second passport continues that tradition, signaling that Canada stands with democracy under threat.
2. Strategic alignment
   Taiwan’s survival is not just a regional issue — it’s a global one. By helping the Taiwanese secure escape routes, Canada reinforces deterrence. It tells Beijing: even if you strike, you will not erase Taiwan’s people, culture, or political will. We see that same positioning from the Honk Kong diaspora living freely in Canada today.
3. Economic opportunity
   Taiwan’s citizens are highly educated, affluent, entrepreneurial, and globally connected. Welcoming them — even as dual citizens — would enrich Canada’s economy, particularly in critical technology and semiconductor fields.
4. Diaspora strength
   Canada already benefits from robust Taiwanese, Hong Kong and Chinese communities. Facilitating passports would deepen people-to-people ties, anchoring Canada’s long-term relationship with Asia.
5. Humanitarian insurance
   In the event of conflict, Taiwan’s 23 million people will look for lifeboats, maybe literally. Canada can — and should — be one of them. Better to prepare now than scramble later.

Beyond Beans and Bandages

For individual Taiwanese preppers, this means broadening the definition of readiness. Stockpiles of food and medicine are necessary but not sufficient. True resilience means securing the right to move — to carry your family across a border, to land in a safe harbor, to rebuild in peace.

For governments, such as Canada, it means recognizing that immigration and citizenship policies are part of deterrence. Offering second passports to Taiwanese is not charity; it’s strategy. It preserves Taiwan’s people, empowers its diaspora, and raises the cost to Beijing of military adventurism.

A trillion-dollar U.S.–China deal could bind, or at least delay, America’s hands at the very moment Taiwan’s freedom hangs in the balance. For preppers, the lesson is clear: survival depends not only on what you store in your pantry but on the passport you carry in your pocket.

And for Canada, the opportunity is equally clear: by extending second-passport lifelines to Taiwanese citizens, Ottawa can defend democratic values, strengthen its own economy, and play a decisive role in one of the defining struggles of our era.

In times of crisis, the most valuable asset is not a stockpile. It is a way out. It is in these moments that the Canada and Canadians shine brightest.

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